| Omni Rankings™ | 2025 College football | through 1/19/26 games | |||||||||||||||||
| Texas State | |||||||||||||||||||
| Sun Belt page | |||||||||||||||||||
| Texas State schedule | Rating: 83.08 (D-I #71) Projected season record: 7 - 6 overall, 3 - 5 Sun Belt | ||||||||||||||||||
| Overall | Conf | Ratings and projections | |||||||||||||||||
| Game | Division I opponent | Site | Result | Score | record | record | Streak | Last 5 | Rating | Projection (correct/incorrect winner) | Texas State win probability | ||||||||
| 1 | Eastern Michigan | Home | Win | 52 - 27 | 1 - 0 | 0 - 0 | W1 | 83.61 | |||||||||||
| 2 | UTSA | Road | Win | 43 - 36 | 2 - 0 | 0 - 0 | W2 | 85.33 | |||||||||||
| 3 | Arizona State | Road | Loss | 15 - 34 | 2 - 1 | 0 - 0 | L1 | 83.29 | |||||||||||
| 4 | Nicholls | Home | Win | 35 - 3 | 3 - 1 | 0 - 0 | W1 | 83.94 | |||||||||||
| 5 | Arkansas State | Road | Loss | 30 - 31 | 3 - 2 | 0 - 1 | L1 | 3-2 | 81.94 | Texas State by 13 | 80% | ||||||||
| 6 | Troy | Home | Loss | 41 - 48 | OT | 3 - 3 | 0 - 2 | L2 | 2-3 | 80.65 | Texas State by 9 | 73% | |||||||
| 7 | Marshall | Road | Loss | 37 - 40 | 2OT | 3 - 4 | 0 - 3 | L3 | 1-4 | 80.94 | Marshall by 2 | 44% | |||||||
| 8 | James Madison | Home | Loss | 20 - 52 | 3 - 5 | 0 - 4 | L4 | 1-4 | 77.80 | James Madison by 6 | 34% | ||||||||
| 9 | Louisiana | Road | Loss | 39 - 42 | 3 - 6 | 0 - 5 | L5 | 0-5 | 76.88 | Texas State by 5 | 63% | ||||||||
| 10 | Southern Miss | Road | Win | 41 - 14 | 4 - 6 | 1 - 5 | W1 | 1-4 | 80.61 | Southern Miss by 6 | 35% | ||||||||
| 11 | ULM | Home | Win | 31 - 14 | 5 - 6 | 2 - 5 | W2 | 2-3 | 80.04 | Texas State by 22 | 91% | ||||||||
| 12 | South Alabama | Home | Win | 49 - 26 | 6 - 6 | 3 - 5 | W3 | 3-2 | 81.41 | Texas State by 10 | 75% | ||||||||
| 13 | Rice | Neutral | Win | 41 - 10 | 7 - 6 | 3 - 5 | W4 | 4-1 | 83.08 | Texas State by 15 | 83% | ||||||||
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